Is spring here to stay? Mid-range charts showing a slight bias in early April

This could be the pattern shift we’ve been waiting for, Minnesota.

You heard meteorologists blabbering last week about our big warm-up this week. And we’re still on track for at least 50 seconds, and maybe 60 degrees from the Twin Cities to the south in the next few days.

But a closer look at mid-range jet stream patterns over the next 1-2 weeks seems to show the telltale signs of climate change from the annual season into the spring.

I put together this animation of the upper air height anomalies (500 millibars) between March 20 and 27. The thing to grasp here is the preponderance of above average heights (warm colors) over the Upper Midwest as we move into late March. This type of pattern produces warmer than average temperatures in the Upper Midwest.

NOAA GFS upper forecast height anomalies between March 20 and 27.

NOAA via Tropical Treats

NOAA’s six to ten day temperature forecast strongly favors above average temperatures in our region.

NOAA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast

NOAA Six to Ten Day Temperature Outlook


And the three- to four-week temperature forecasts show a warm bias.

NOAA temperature outlook for weeks 3 and 4.


The U.S. GFS and Europe model’s temperature output on Monday predicts five or six 60-degree days for the Twin Cities by the end of March. Next week we’ll have a 60 degree shot in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota on Wednesday, Sunday and Monday.

High temperatures expected Sunday

High temperatures expected Sunday.


The storm’s track across North America shows little rain or snow likely for Minnesota next week.

There is still deep snow in the north, but once the snow clears in southern Minnesota, temperatures will react quickly with a high angle and sun intensity in late March.

Another snow event in the next few weeks is still possible. But it looks like the season formerly known as spring is just around the corner. And he could be here to stay.

Stay tuned.

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